April Market Commentary
- Marc Lowe
- Apr 21
- 5 min read
I was talking with a middle aged father of 2 who was worried about the stock market especially since he was nearing retirement and was unsure what was going to happen with the war. Before we sat down to chat, he mentioned how "He knew this was going to happen".
I asked "knew what exactly?"
"Knew that we were going to go to war with Iran and cause oil prices to soar right as I was going to retire".
I could see how frustrated he was, and even though I wanted to ask how many times he thought something like this would happen and was wrong.. I instead laid out my thoughts and started by agreeing with him that there is a lot of tension right now.
There’s a tension building in the economy & geopolitically—and it’s not subtle.
Markets are holding steady, even climbing back toward highs. Meanwhile, consumers are growing more pessimistic by the week. Sitting between those two realities is a global energy shock that hasn’t fully worked its way through the system.
We’re now more than a month into the Iran conflict, and the data is starting to take shape: slower growth, rising inflation, and weakening confidence.
But here’s what’s interesting…
Markets are already looking past it.
Markets Are Playing the Long Game
As the world fixates on the Strait of Hormuz, markets are doing something different—they’re zooming out.
Global equities are back near all-time highs. Even in regions directly impacted by energy disruptions, like South Korea—where headlines warn of rolling blackouts—markets have largely recovered their wartime losses.
That tells you something important:
Markets are no longer reacting to the next headline. They’re weighing the next 3 to 30 months.
And increasingly, they’re asking a different question:
What happens after this?
A Future Beyond the Strait of Hormuz
While investors are looking forward, energy producers are thinking even longer-term.
The current disruption has exposed a major vulnerability: too much of the world’s energy supply depends on a narrow, fragile chokepoint.
So the response is predictable—and already underway.
Workarounds Are Already in Motion
Exporters are actively rerouting supply:
These solutions aren’t perfect—they’re limited and still exposed to risk—but they’re working.... so far.
And more importantly, they’re setting the stage for something bigger.
The Next Phase: Infrastructure Expansion
A new proposal—highlighted by the International Energy Agency—would link Iraqi oil fields to a Turkish port on the Mediterranean.
That matters.
It would route energy through more stable regions, reduce reliance on the Strait, and potentially shift long-term supply dynamics.
Why the urgency?
Because shutting down oil production isn’t like flipping a switch.
When wells go offline:
Pressure systems destabilize
Water buildup increases
Equipment corrodes from exposure to gases
Restarting production becomes expensive, inefficient, and sometimes permanently impaired.
So this isn’t just about today’s disruption—it’s about preventing long-term damage.
The Big Picture Most People Are Missing
If this trend continues, we could see a very different energy landscape over time:
Less dependence on the Strait of Hormuz
More diversified export routes
Greater supply stability
Potentially lower long-term oil prices
Here’s the catch:
Markets aren’t fully pricing this in yet.
Why?
Because this kind of transformation takes years—political agreements, permitting, construction.
It sits well outside the market’s typical time horizon.
But that doesn’t make it irrelevant. In fact, it creates opportunity.
The Data Still Tells a Mixed Story
While markets look ahead, the current data reflects real pressure:
Jobs remain strong: 178,000 added; unemployment at 4.3%
Inflation is rising: 3.3% year-over-year, with a sharp monthly spike
Growth is slowing: GDP estimates down to 1.3%
Confidence is falling: Consumer sentiment dropped 11%
Consumers, unlike markets, are reacting to what’s happening right now.
And right now feels uncertain.
Charts of the Month: Energy Shock & Consumer Sentiment
Energy Shock
A steep drop in tanker traffic is already tightening supply chains. Energy feeds into everything—and when it moves, the economy follows.
Consumer Sentiment
Consumers are bracing for higher inflation—now expected at 4.8% over the next year.
That expectation alone can drive behavior that keeps inflation elevated.
Interest Rates Add Another Layer
The Federal Reserve is in a sticky situation.
Rising energy prices complicate inflation, making rate cuts harder to justify. Some policymakers are even floating delays into 2027.
At the same time:
Mortgage rates are rising again
Housing activity is slowing
Loan demand is falling
Financial conditions are tightening—quietly but steadily.
So What Should You Do With All This?
This is where discipline matters.
Because while headlines focus on worst-case scenarios, reality is usually more nuanced.
And more importantly—more flexible.
For your investments:
Stay anchored to your long-term plan
Make thoughtful, not emotional, adjustments
Look for opportunities created by short-term dislocations
For your cash flow:
Stay intentional with spending
Prioritize what matters most
Build flexibility into your plan
Final Thought
Markets are betting that this moment passes—and that the future looks more stable than the present.
Consumers aren’t so convinced.
That gap between perception and reality?
That’s where smart decisions get made.
If you can step back, see both sides, and stay grounded in a plan—you won’t just navigate this environment…
You’ll position yourself to benefit from what comes next.
If you want help stress-testing your plan or making sense of what this means for your situation, we’re here to help.
About the Author
Marc Lowe, CFP® is a fee-only fiduciary advisor based in Waterford, CT, helping families & small business owners make smarter financial decisions.
The information presented in this article is the opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of any other person or entity unless specified. The information provided is believed to be reliable and obtained from reliable sources, but no liability is accepted for inaccuracies. The information provided is for informational purposes and should not be construed as advice. Advisory services offered through In The Money Retirement, an investment adviser registered with the state of Connecticut. The information linked to on third-party sites is being provided strictly as a courtesy and convenience. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these websites. When you access these websites, you are leaving our website and assume any and all responsibility and risk for use of the web sites you are visiting.The tax and estate planning information offered by the advisor is general in nature. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.
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