Gold Surges & Hits $4,000- My Thoughts
- Marc Lowe
- Oct 20
- 3 min read
Updated: Oct 23
Earlier this week, I spoke with a couple at my workshop who asked about the recent surge in gold prices.
They are correct, gold broke above $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history and has been surging. But, they specifically feared that gold’s surge signals growing fear, a weakening U.S. dollar, or even trouble ahead for stocks.
I began to recount how history tells a different story. In my view, price milestones like this say more about investor emotion than they do about economic reality.
Why the “Gold Means Trouble” Story Falls Apart
The popular bearish argument goes something like this: Gold is rising because investors and central banks are losing faith in the dollar and U.S. Treasurys. The “debasement trade,” as some call it, implies that inflation, government debt, or political risk will push investors toward hard assets like gold — and away from U.S. markets.
The problem? The evidence doesn’t back it up.
The U.S. dollar, while down slightly this year, remains strong compared to its long-term history. Treasury yields — a proxy for demand for U.S. debt — are not spiking. In fact, long-term yields are lower than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. If investors were truly abandoning the dollar or Treasurys, we’d see the opposite.
Meanwhile, U.S. stocks have quietly risen over 16% year-to-date — and that strength extends beyond the big tech names. Small-cap stocks and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are also solidly positive. That’s not what you see during a “flight to safety.”
Gold and Stocks: No Predictive Power
Some suggest gold “knows” something stocks don’t — that it’s an early warning signal of volatility ahead. But statistically, gold and equities don’t have any meaningful relationship.
Over the past 25 years, their correlation has hovered around zero — meaning gold and stocks move independently of one another. Sometimes they rise together. Sometimes they diverge. There’s no consistent pattern that gives gold predictive value.
So, if gold isn’t a reliable warning sign, what does its surge represent?
It’s Not Fear — It’s Skepticism
Today’s headlines about gold’s rise fit a familiar behavioral pattern I see near the middle of bull markets, not the end of them. Investors remain skeptical, quick to believe the next crisis is just around the corner.
That’s healthy. This lowers the bar of expectations and makes it easier for companies to beat those expectations.
True euphoria — the kind that leads to bubbles — looks very different. It’s when people ignore risks, chase returns, and assume the good times will never end. We’re nowhere near that point.
What Investors Should Take Away
If you’re a long-term investor, the key isn’t to react to headlines — it’s to stay anchored in facts and disciplined strategy.
Markets move on fundamentals, not fear. Gold’s milestone may make headlines, but it doesn’t rewrite the playbook for diversified investors focused on optimizing cash flow, tax efficiency, and sustainable growth.
As I often remind folks:
“Truth — an accurate understanding of reality — is the foundation for good outcomes.”
Bottom Line
Gold at $4,000 isn’t a warning siren. It’s another reminder that sentiment, not substance, drives short-term narratives. For disciplined investors with a sound plan, these moments are opportunities to stay focused, not fearful.
About The Author
Marc Lowe is the Founder & President of In The Money Retirement Planning. He is a Certified Financial Planner and member of NAPFA National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, XY Planning Network & Fee-Only Network. He works with retirees and those approaching retirement. He has over a decade of experience helping these folks grow their net worth, organize their finances and build better lives for themselves and their families.
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